Summary
This scenario-based modelling study projects that global per capita demand for livestock-derived proteins will increase by 14% between 2020 and 2050 under a mid-range socioeconomic trajectory, with total demand rising 38% due to population growth. Demand growth is concentrated in lower-income regions (South Asia +49%, sub-Saharan Africa +55% per capita), whilst high-income countries' red meat demand may decline modestly if consumer preferences shift. The analysis demonstrates that commodity prices—driven by global supply responses—substantially mediate regional demand patterns, particularly in price-sensitive markets.
UK applicability
The study's projections for high-income countries are relevant to UK dietary and policy contexts, suggesting modest potential for red meat demand decline if consumer preference shifts occur. However, the paper does not present UK-specific analysis, and actual UK trajectories will depend on domestic policy, retail environment, and culturally-specific consumption patterns.
Key measures
Per capita protein demand change (percentage) for red meat, poultry, dairy milk and eggs; total protein demand change; regional variation in demand trajectories; income elasticity of demand; commodity price projections; sensitivity analysis on income elasticity and prices
Outcomes reported
The study used scenario-based modelling to project changes in global demand for livestock-derived proteins (red meat, poultry, dairy, eggs) between 2020 and 2050 under different socioeconomic pathways, accounting for population growth, income changes, and consumer preference shifts. It quantified per capita and total protein demand trajectories across regions and income country groupings, and assessed the sensitivity of demand to changes in income elasticity and commodity prices.
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