The lost opportunity from insufficient pollinators for global food supplies and human health

Summary

This global modelling study quantifies the human health burden from insufficient pollination of crops, finding that inadequate pollinator populations cause 3–5% annual losses in fruit, vegetable, and nut production, resulting in approximately 427 000 excess deaths per year from associated non-communicable diseases. The analysis reveals inequitable impacts: whilst production losses concentrate in low-income countries, mortality and morbidity effects are greater in middle- and high-income countries with higher baseline disease rates. Case studies from Honduras, Nepal, and Nigeria demonstrate that economic crop value is 12–31% lower than potential when pollinators are abundant.

UK applicability

The UK, as a high-income country, would likely experience health impacts from pollinator deficits similar to those modelled for comparable economies; however, the study's emphasis on low-income country income loss and production impacts may have limited direct applicability to UK agricultural policy, which relies substantially on imported pollination-dependent foods. UK-specific modelling would be needed to quantify domestic food production and consumption losses.

Key measures

Pollinator-related crop yield gap (%), lost fruit/vegetable/nut production (%), excess deaths annually (number with 95% uncertainty interval), economic value loss (%), country and regional variation in impacts

Outcomes reported

The study quantified the global crop yield gap attributable to insufficient pollination and modelled the resulting burden of disease from reduced consumption of pollination-dependent foods. It estimated excess annual mortality, economic losses, and regional inequalities in pollinator-related food production deficits.

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