Bundling measures for food systems transformation: a global, multimodel assessment

Summary

This multimodel assessment applies ten state-of-the-art global economic models to evaluate how four key food systems transformation measures—increased agricultural productivity, halved food loss and waste, shifts to healthier diets aligned with EAT-Lancet reference standards, and economy-wide climate mitigation to 1·5°C—perform individually and in combination. The study employs decomposition analysis to distinguish individual effects, total effects within bundles, and interaction effects, thereby identifying complementarities and trade-offs that emerge from simultaneous implementation across food systems. The research provides quantitative evidence on the magnitude and uncertainty of bundled interventions needed to address concurrent hunger and environmental crises.

UK applicability

The findings have direct relevance to UK policy, particularly for the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) and Climate Change Committee, as the modelling includes economy-wide climate mitigation pathways aligned with domestic net-zero commitments. The dietary shift scenarios, based on the EAT-Lancet framework, align with UK nutrition guidance and inform food security and public health policy discussions.

Key measures

Food security outcomes (hunger risk), greenhouse gas emissions reductions, agricultural land use change, and interaction effects between bundled measures; modelled from 2020 to 2050

Outcomes reported

The study quantified the individual and combined impacts of four key food systems transformation measures (agricultural productivity, food loss and waste reduction, dietary shift, and climate mitigation) on hunger, environmental outcomes, and agricultural land use through 2050 using ten global economic models. A decomposition analysis identified complementarities and trade-offs when measures were implemented simultaneously.

Topic tags