The dynamics of increasing mineral resources and improving resource efficiency: Prospects for mid- and long-term security of phosphorus supply

Summary

• Population growth and GDP driven diet change will increase phosphorus demand to 2060 by 40 percent. • Total use efficiency (TUE), the ratio of phosphorus intake from food to the phosphorus required to grow food, is very low at 5 to 10 %. • Phosphorus flow data suggest a large, underappreciated recycling potential for phosphorus in organic waste. • The lasky rule, i.e. the exponential growth of cumulative tonnage with decreasing ore content, applies to phosphorus. • Rising market prices allow mining of lower grade ore, deeper mining, etc. and cause an increase in marketable phosphate supply. We analyze the dynamics of phosphorus demand and supply in the context of the rapid mid-term increase in food demand (40 % by 2060) and mineral phosphorus demand increase. Including losses at mines, a