Reducing greenhouse gas emissions in agriculture without compromising food security?

Summary

This modelling study examines the tension between climate stabilisation at 1.5 °C and food security in the agricultural sector. Using integrated partial equilibrium analysis, the authors project that cost-efficient global climate mitigation could reduce food availability by 110–285 kcal per capita daily by 2050, potentially increasing undernourishment by 80–300 million people. The work demonstrates that mitigation outcomes depend critically on global participation, regional participation levels, and country-specific land-use characteristics, with land-rich countries potentially achieving emissions reductions at lower food security cost.

UK applicability

As a developed, food-importing nation with relatively modest agricultural greenhouse gas emissions from land-use change, the United Kingdom's direct food security exposure to agricultural mitigation scenarios may differ substantially from results shown for non-Annex I countries; however, the findings highlight potential global food price volatility and supply chain risks relevant to UK food policy and nutrition security planning.

Key measures

Global food calorie losses (kcal per capita per day in 2050); projected rise in undernourishment (millions of people); regional variation in food security impacts; emissions reductions by country and sector

Outcomes reported

The study modelled the effects of cost-efficient greenhouse gas mitigation scenarios on agricultural production and food availability to 2050, reporting projected calorie losses per capita and potential increases in undernourishment across regions and countries.

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