Pulse Brain · Growing Health Evidence Index
Tier 3 — Observational / field trialPeer-reviewed

The impact of population growth and climate change on food security in Africa: looking ahead to 2050

Charlotte Hall, Terence P. Dawson, Jennie I. Macdiarmid, Robin Matthews, Pete Smith

International Journal of Agricultural Sustainability · 2017

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Summary

This modelling study used the FEEDME framework to project food security outcomes across 44 African nations to 2050 under combined scenarios of population growth and climate change. The analysis found that rapid population growth, rather than climate change alone, will be the primary driver of widespread undernourishment across the continent. The authors discuss adaptation strategies including yield gap closure via sustainable intensification and increased trade to mitigate projected food insecurity.

UK applicability

Whilst this study focuses on African food systems and demographics, its findings on the relative importance of population growth versus climate change in driving food insecurity may inform UK policy discussions on global food system resilience and international development priorities. The adaptation strategies discussed (intensification, trade) are relevant to understanding how UK food security may depend on African agricultural performance.

Key measures

Food availability; undernourishment prevalence; population projections; climate change scenarios (IPCC SRES projections); yield gaps

Outcomes reported

The study modelled future food availability and undernourishment prevalence across 44 African countries under scenarios of population growth and climate change to 2050. Projections indicated population growth as the dominant driver of food insecurity, with minimal additional impact from climate change alone.

Theme
Climate & resilience
Subject
Food security & global nutrition
Study type
Research
Study design
Modelling study
Source type
Peer-reviewed study
Status
Published
Geography
Africa
System type
Food supply chain
DOI
10.1080/14735903.2017.1293929
Catalogue ID
BFmovi23dp-k1wz0w

Topic tags

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