Impacts of land use, population, and climate change on global food security

Summary

This modelling study examined the combined effects of climate variability, population growth, and land use change on global food security through 2050 using the FEEDME framework. The analysis incorporated two IPCC climate scenarios and three socio-economic scenarios to project changes in per capita calorie availability and undernourishment prevalence. The findings emphasise that projected population growth is the dominant driver of future food insecurity, outweighing climate change impacts, and highlight the importance of strategies including improved maternal healthcare, equitable food access, yield gap closure, and trade pattern reform.

UK applicability

The study's global modelling approach provides limited direct insight into UK-specific food security outcomes, as the UK's mature agricultural sector, high income levels, and established trade networks differ substantially from lower-income regions most affected. However, the findings may inform UK policy on international food security, humanitarian aid prioritisation, and supply chain resilience for imported staple foods.

Key measures

Per capita calories, minimum dietary energy requirements, undernourishment prevalence, crop yields under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) and Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP) scenarios

Outcomes reported

The study modelled future impacts of climate variability, population change, and land use change on global food security and undernourishment prevalence to 2050 using the FEEDME framework. Results indicated that population growth was the dominant driver of change in undernourishment, with climate change having a secondary effect on crop yields.

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