Summary
This multi-model study examines the vulnerability of global agricultural land to future water scarcity, finding that approximately 11% of croplands and 10% of grasslands face productive capacity loss, with Africa, the Middle East, China, Europe and Asia particularly at risk. The authors use integrated assessment models to project land demand and water availability under different climate and socioeconomic scenarios. The results suggest that dietary changes—including reduced food waste and decreased meat consumption—offer the most significant mitigation pathway against agricultural land loss and associated food insecurity.
UK applicability
Europe is identified as a region at particular risk from water scarcity impacts on agriculture. The findings are relevant to UK policy on food security and land use, though study-specific vulnerability data for the UK is not detailed in the abstract.
Key measures
Percentage of croplands and grasslands at risk from water scarcity; regional vulnerability mapping; land use projections under different dietary and waste reduction scenarios
Outcomes reported
The study quantified the proportion of current croplands and grasslands vulnerable to declining water availability using multi-model comparison approaches, and evaluated policy interventions (dietary change, waste reduction) as buffers against land loss.
Topic tags
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