A methodological framework for assessing sea level rise impacts on nitrate loading in coastal agricultural watersheds using SWAT+: A case study of the Tar-Pamlico River basin, North Carolina, USA

Summary

This study addresses the urgent need to understand the impacts of climate change on coastal ecosystems by demonstrating how to use the SWAT+ model to assess the effects of sea level rise (SLR) on agricultural nitrate export in a coastal watershed. Our framework for incorporating SLR in the SWAT+ model includes: (1) reclassifying current land uses to water for areas with elevations below 0.3 m based on SLR projections for mid-century; (2) creating new SLR-influenced land uses, SLR-influenced crop database, and hydrological response units for areas with elevations below 2.4 m; and (3) adjusting SWAT+ parameters for the SLR-influenced areas to simulate the effects of saltwater intrusion on processes such as plant yield and denitrification. We demonstrate this approach in the Tar-Pamlico River