Pulse Brain · Growing Health Evidence Index
Tier 4 — Narrative / commentaryPeer-reviewed

Prediction and projection of heatwaves

Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Elfatih A. B. Eltahir, Erich Fischer, Reto Knutti, Sarah Perkins‐Kirkpatrick, Christoph Schär, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Antje Weisheimer, Heini Wernli

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment · 2022

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Summary

This Nature Reviews article synthesises contemporary understanding of heatwave prediction and projection methodologies. The paper likely examines predictability at multiple timescales—from sub-seasonal to decadal forecasts—and reviews climate model projections of future heatwave risk under different warming scenarios. The review draws on a multidisciplinary author team spanning climate science, meteorology, and Earth system modelling, suggesting a comprehensive treatment of both observational constraints and model uncertainties.

Regional applicability

Whilst the review is global in scope, findings on heatwave predictability and projected intensification have direct relevance to United Kingdom climate adaptation policy and agricultural planning. Projections of increased heatwave frequency and severity inform UK agricultural vulnerability assessments and water resource management, particularly for irrigation demand and livestock heat stress in pastoral and intensive systems.

Key measures

Heatwave frequency, intensity, duration, and predictability across seasonal to decadal timescales; climate model projections of future heatwave characteristics

Outcomes reported

This review synthesises evidence on heatwave prediction at multiple timescales and climate projections of future heatwave frequency, intensity and duration under anthropogenic warming.

Theme
Climate & resilience
Subject
Climate & greenhouse gas mitigation
Study type
Narrative Review
Study design
Narrative review
Source type
Peer-reviewed study
Status
Published
Geography
Global
System type
Other
DOI
10.1038/s43017-022-00371-z
Catalogue ID
SNmqhkvdzr-4hefmr

Topic tags

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