Selenium deficiency risk predicted to increase under future climate change

Summary

This global data-mining study analysed 33,241 soil observations to map selenium distributions and identify climate–soil interactions as primary determinants of soil Se availability. Projecting moderate climate change scenarios to 2080–2099, the authors predicted that 58% of modelled areas and 66% of croplands will experience significant selenium losses, with implications for widespread dietary deficiency affecting up to 1 billion people worldwide. The findings highlight a critical vulnerability of food systems to climate change operating through soil–plant nutrient pathways.

Regional applicability

The United Kingdom's temperate maritime climate and current soil conditions may experience differential selenium loss compared to global averages; the findings suggest UK agricultural policy and nutrition planning should account for potential reductions in dietary selenium availability from domestic production under climate change scenarios. However, the UK's reliance on imported foodstuffs may moderate direct impacts on population selenium intake relative to countries dependent on locally-grown crops.

Key measures

Soil selenium concentrations (mg/kg); percentage of global and cropland areas predicted to experience selenium loss under future climate scenarios (2080–2099); mean magnitude of predicted losses (8.4% globally, 8.7% in croplands)

Outcomes reported

The study modelled global soil selenium distributions using 33,241 soil data points and identified climate–soil interactions as primary controlling factors. Using climate change projections for 2080–2099, the authors predicted soil selenium losses from 58% of modelled areas globally, with croplands facing particularly acute losses of 8.7% on average.

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