Summary
This study compares statistical methodologies for attributing streamflow changes to land cover modifications across 729 United States catchments (1992–2018). Panel regression models showed that a 1%-point increase in urban catchment area resulted in a statistically significant 0.6–0.7% increase in mean and high flows, whilst tree cover change showed no strongly significant effects. However, generalised linear models fitted to individual sites revealed substantial heterogeneity in site-specific coefficients, with median coefficients showing no significant relationships—highlighting important methodological considerations for large-sample hydrological attribution studies.
Regional applicability
Whilst this study was conducted in the United States, the methodological insights regarding statistical attribution of streamflow to land cover change are transferable to United Kingdom catchment studies, where urbanisation and afforestation similarly influence hydrological responses. The cautionary findings about heterogeneity across sites may be particularly relevant to the topographically and climatically varied UK landscape.
Key measures
Streamflow quantiles (Q99, Qmean, Q01); catchment urbanization and tree cover change (percentage points); panel regression coefficients; generalised linear model coefficients by individual site
Outcomes reported
The study examined relationships between streamflow quantiles (high Q99, mean Qmean, low Q01) and urbanization or tree cover change across 729 catchments. Two statistical modelling approaches (panel regression and generalised linear models) were compared to assess their performance in attributing hydrological changes to land cover change.
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