Summary
This modelling study, published in The Lancet in 2016, projects how climate change will alter global food production and composition through to 2050, with heterogeneous health consequences across regions and income groups. Using integrated agricultural and epidemiological models, the authors estimate changes in crop yields, nutritional availability, and resulting disease burden under multiple climate and socio-economic scenarios. The work suggests that climate-driven reductions in crop productivity and shifts in food availability will compound existing nutritional inequities, with larger health burdens in low- and middle-income regions.
Regional applicability
As a high-income nation with diversified food imports and established agricultural infrastructure, the United Kingdom may experience less severe direct production losses than modelled for many regions; however, the findings have relevance to UK food security policy, international agricultural resilience, and trade-dependent nutrition, particularly regarding staple grain and vegetable availability.
Key measures
Regional changes in crop yields under climate scenarios; caloric and nutritional availability; disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and mortality attributable to dietary changes; regional variation in health outcomes
Outcomes reported
The study modelled how climate change, diet shifts, and population growth will affect food production and resulting health outcomes (mortality, disease burden) across regions to 2050. It integrated agricultural productivity projections with nutritional and epidemiological models to estimate regional health impacts.
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