Summary
This global modelling study estimates that 3–5% of fruit, vegetable, and nut production is currently lost due to inadequate pollination, resulting in approximately 427,000 excess deaths annually from reduced consumption of nutritious foods and associated non-communicable diseases. Using climate zonation and agricultural-economic models linked to comparative risk assessment, the authors reveal that whilst production losses concentrate in lower-income countries, the health burden disproportionately affects middle- and high-income nations with higher disease prevalence. The work quantifies an often-overlooked pathway through which pollinator decline—driven by land-use change, intensive farming, pesticides, and climate change—undermines human nutritional security and population health.
Regional applicability
The UK relies on both native and managed pollinators for key horticultural crops (soft fruits, tree fruits, vegetables). These findings support the importance of pollinator conservation and habitat management in UK agricultural policy and suggest that pollinator decline poses material risks to food security and public health within and beyond UK borders.
Key measures
Percentage of fruit, vegetable, and nut production lost to inadequate pollination; excess annual mortality attributable to lost healthy food consumption; economic value of lost crop production by country; changes in dietary risks and mortality by country
Outcomes reported
The study modelled global yield gaps in animal-pollinated crops attributable to insufficient pollination and estimated resulting changes in food consumption, dietary risks, and mortality using comparative risk assessment. It calculated excess annual deaths globally and economic losses in three case-study countries (Honduras, Nepal, Nigeria).
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