Summary
This study develops a hierarchical Bayesian model to evaluate how river temperature and flow conditions influence spawner-to-fry production in Okanagan sockeye salmon. The analysis reveals that warm-water barriers during upstream migration substantially reduce reproductive success through carry-over effects, whilst current flow management targets demonstrably increase freshwater production. The findings suggest that adaptive flow management may help mitigate climate-driven threats to this recovering population.
Regional applicability
This study concerns a Canadian freshwater fishery system and does not directly apply to United Kingdom conditions. However, the methodological approach to quantifying environmental management impacts on aquatic species reproduction and the focus on climate adaptation strategies through flow regulation may inform UK freshwater fishery management, particularly for recovery programmes of salmonid populations facing similar thermal and hydrological pressures.
Key measures
Spawner abundance, fry emergence observations, river temperature during migration and incubation, flow conditions, spawner-to-fry production rates
Outcomes reported
The study quantified how river temperature during adult migration and flow conditions during egg incubation influence spawner-to-fry production in Okanagan sockeye salmon using hierarchical Bayesian modelling. Production declined by 62% in years with extended warm-water migration barriers and was 46% lower when flows deviated from management target ranges.
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