Summary
Conradi et al. developed ecophysiological models for 135,153 vascular plant species to transform climate projections into 'phytoclimates'—measures of a climate's capacity to support particular plant growth forms. They forecast that 33–68% of global land will experience significant phytoclimate shifts by 2070, with 0.3–2.2% experiencing entirely novel phytoclimates and 0.1–1.3% losing their current ones. Crucially, the geographic pattern of these ecological changes diverges substantially from conventional climate exposure indices, suggesting that traditional climate risk maps may misidentify conservation priorities and that ecosystem adaptation strategies require transformation.
Regional applicability
This global modelling study provides a framework applicable to United Kingdom terrestrial ecosystems, where phytoclimate shifts may alter the capacity of landscapes to support current grassland, moorland, and woodland plant communities. UK conservation and land management policy could benefit from adopting phytoclimate-based rather than purely climatic exposure indices to identify regions requiring adaptive management and species translocation, though local validation and downscaled projections would be needed for operational implementation.
Key measures
Percentage of global land surface experiencing significant phytoclimate change by 2070; proportion of land where novel phytoclimates will emerge; proportion of current phytoclimates forecast to disappear; geographic distribution of phytoclimate novelty and disappearance under RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 scenarios
Outcomes reported
The study forecasted geographic patterns of phytoclimate change across the global land surface by 2070 under two climate scenarios, identifying regions where ecosystem-supporting plant growth forms will shift, disappear, or emerge without present-day analogue. It demonstrated that phytoclimate-based risk assessment produces different conservation priorities than traditional climate exposure indices.
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