Can objective information update subjective beliefs on sustainable farming? Evidence from a randomized experiment with Japanese rice farmers

Summary

This randomised experiment with Japanese rice farmers examines whether providing objective economic data can shift subjective beliefs about the income consequences of adopting organic farming or reducing chemical inputs by 50%. The study finds that beliefs are indeed updated by objective information, with larger effects when information is favourable to adoption, and that both the subjective mean and variance of expected income changes predict farmers' adoption intentions. The work suggests information provision about economic outcomes may be an effective policy lever for promoting sustainable farming adoption.

Regional applicability

The findings are directly transferable to United Kingdom cereal and horticultural sectors, where similar belief-updating mechanisms and information asymmetries about sustainable practice economics likely apply. However, UK farmers may have greater access to extension services and agricultural advisory networks, potentially moderating the marginal effect of new information; the study's focus on rice monoculture also limits direct applicability to UK mixed and diversified systems.

Key measures

Subjective beliefs about income changes (elicited before and after treatment); willingness to adopt sustainable farming practices (choice experiment); comparison of qualitative-only control versus average income information treatment versus distributional income information treatment

Outcomes reported

The study measured whether objective information about income changes from organic farming and reduced chemical input practices could update farmers' subjective beliefs, and how these beliefs influenced willingness to adopt sustainable practices. Results showed that beliefs were updated by objective information, particularly when information was favourable, and that both mean and variance of subjective beliefs predicted adoption intent.

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