Summary
This mixed-methods study integrated 37 years of meteorological data (1983–2019) with socio-economic surveys of 264 households in southwestern Ethiopia to assess climate change impacts on agro-pastoral livestock systems. Statistically significant increases in annual rainfall in Gambella district (+0.261 mm/year) and maximum temperature in Lare district (+0.021 °C/year) were detected, with communities reporting drought, flooding, and rainfall variability as major hazards driving feed shortages, reduced reproduction, increased disease, and productivity losses. The authors recommend climate-smart practices including improved forage, early warning systems, and veterinary services to build resilience.
Regional applicability
This study is directly relevant to understanding climate vulnerability in pastoral and agro-pastoral systems in sub-Saharan Africa. Whilst conducted in Ethiopia, the findings on climate-driven livestock productivity losses and adaptation strategies have potential transferability to similar pastoral regions in East Africa, though UK temperate grassland-based livestock systems operate under different climatic and institutional contexts.
Key measures
Mann–Kendall trend test and Sen's slope estimator for rainfall (mm/year) and maximum temperature (°C/year); household survey responses on climate hazards and livestock productivity outcomes; chi-square tests comparing districts.
Outcomes reported
The study quantified trends in rainfall and temperature over 1983–2019 and assessed their effects on livestock productivity metrics including feed availability, reproductive performance, disease incidence, milk yield, weight, and mortality in two southwestern districts.
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