Monsoon weather and food security in Pakistan

Summary

This study leveraged large-scale household survey data (147,063 households from Pakistan Social and Living Standards Measurement Survey 2019–2020) linked to meteorological reanalysis to quantify the impact of monsoon drought on food security. Dry monsoon conditions increased mild to severe food insecurity by 8.5%, with effects predominantly manifested through reduced food diversity and quality rather than total caloric intake, with disproportionate impacts on less-educated households. The findings underscore how climate variability threatens food security in South Asia, particularly among vulnerable populations.

Regional applicability

This study is based in Pakistan and thus directly relevant to South Asian food security policy and climate adaptation. Whilst not directly UK-based, the methodological approach (linking household surveys to reanalysis climate data) and findings on climate-driven food insecurity are transferable to understanding climate risks to UK food supply chains dependent on South Asian production, and to informing climate adaptation priorities in regions with similar monsoon dependence.

Key measures

Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI); self-assessed food insecurity; food diversity; household educational attainment; district-level meteorological data

Outcomes reported

The study examined how dry monsoon conditions affect self-assessed food security across Pakistani households, measuring changes in food insecurity prevalence, dietary diversity, and food quality. Key outcome was an 8.5% increase in mild to severe food insecurity with exposure to dry monsoon seasons.

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