Summary
This analysis integrated 28 years of district-level crop yield data from India with rainfall metrics to establish optimum rainfall thresholds (ORT) for eight crops, finding that rainfall increases beyond the ORT cause yield declines comparable to equivalent deficits. For cotton, every 1% increase beyond ORT reduced yields by 0.20% (0.67 kg ha⁻¹); for soybean, by 0.11% (1.33 kg ha⁻¹). Climate projections suggest substantial mid-century yield declines driven by anticipated monsoon intensification, emphasising the need for ORT-based metrics in agricultural planning.
Regional applicability
Whilst the study focuses on India's monsoonal systems, the conceptual framework of optimum rainfall thresholds may inform UK agricultural planning given increasing extreme precipitation events. However, the quantitative findings (ORT values, sensitivity coefficients) are specific to Indian crops and rainfall regimes and would require local calibration for UK cereals, horticulture, and grassland systems.
Key measures
District-level crop yield (kg ha⁻¹); seasonal rainfall (mm); optimum rainfall threshold (ORT); yield sensitivity coefficients; rainfall intensity and frequency indices; model-based projections under future climate scenarios
Outcomes reported
The study quantified the relationship between seasonal rainfall variations and crop yields across eight crops in India (1990–2017), establishing optimum rainfall thresholds (ORT) and projecting yield impacts under future climate scenarios. It found that rainfall increases beyond ORT produce yield losses comparable to drought, with sensitivity varying by crop type and region.
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