Summary
This study used calibrated CERES-sorghum and APSIM crop models to project sorghum yield responses to climate change in Fedis district, Ethiopia, through 2050 and 2080 under medium and high emissions scenarios derived from five CMIP6 Global Circulation Models. Model validation demonstrated strong agreement with observed field data (d-stat > 0.66, normalised RMSE < 20%). The analysis projected sorghum yields could increase 20.1–44.4% under future climate conditions, with further gains achievable through earlier planting and higher plant densities as adaptation strategies.
Regional applicability
This study is geographically specific to Eastern Ethiopia (Fedis district) and its findings are unlikely to be directly transferable to United Kingdom conditions, which have contrasting climate, soil, and agronomic contexts. However, the methodological approach—coupling process-based crop models with downscaled climate projections and testing adaptation options—is internationally applicable and relevant to UK climate adaptation research for drought-tolerant crops or crop variety selection under changing conditions.
Key measures
Grain yield (t/ha), anthesis days, days to maturity, d-stat values for model validation, normalised RMSE, projected yield percentage change under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios
Outcomes reported
The study projected sorghum grain yield changes under future climate scenarios (2050s and 2080s) using calibrated crop simulation models, and evaluated adaptation strategies including sowing date and planting density adjustments. Results indicated potential yield increases under both medium and high climate scenarios for Fedis district.
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