Summary
This systematic review of 157 crop modelling studies (2005–2024) quantifies substantial climate-driven yield reductions across five staple cereals in arid and semi-arid regions, with maize declining 20.32% and wheat 15% on average. Local adaptation strategies partially offset 12–19% of these losses, but an 'adaptation effectiveness gap' reveals significant regional variation, with East and South Asia and Eastern Africa underperforming global benchmarks whilst Europe and North America exceed them. The authors propose a transferable framework for region-specific climate adaptation planning informed by these disparities.
Regional applicability
Whilst this global assessment does not focus on the United Kingdom specifically, its framework and findings on cereal crop vulnerability to temperature and precipitation extremes are relevant to UK agricultural planning under climate change. The identification of adaptation effectiveness disparities and the proposed methodological framework may inform UK policy development for climate-resilient agriculture, particularly given comparable cropping systems and access to modelling infrastructure; however, direct yield impact estimates derive primarily from arid and semi-arid zone studies and require contextualisation to temperate UK conditions.
Key measures
Percentage yield reduction by crop and climate variable; adaptation effectiveness as percentage offset of climate-driven losses; regional performance relative to global benchmarks; adaptation effectiveness gap
Outcomes reported
The study assessed yield responses to climate change and quantified the effectiveness of local adaptation strategies across five major crops (maize, wheat, rice, sorghum, barley) in arid and semi-arid regions. It identified an 'adaptation effectiveness gap' showing regional disparities in how well localised adaptations offset climate-driven yield reductions.
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