Long-Term Climate Trends and Their Association with Coffee Yield at Two Production Units in Southern Minas Gerais, Brazil

Summary

This study analysed 40 years of climate data (1984–2023) from two coffee-producing sites in southern Minas Gerais, Brazil, to characterise long-term trends in temperature and precipitation and their associations with coffee yield and production. Warming trends were detected in September and the early wet season, whilst cooling occurred in several months; precipitation declined in May but increased in June with no overall seasonal trend. Notably, correlations between climate variables and coffee production differed markedly between the two units, reflecting local microclimatic and land-cover differences, and the authors identify vulnerability windows during critical phenological stages coinciding with temperature transitions and reduced dry-season rainfall.

Regional applicability

This study is geographically specific to southern Minas Gerais, Brazil's primary coffee-producing region, and does not directly apply to United Kingdom conditions (which lack commercial coffee production). However, the methodological approach (Mann–Kendall analysis of long-term climate records and correlation with crop performance) is transferable and could inform climate-crop studies in UK horticultural systems, particularly for crops sensitive to seasonal temperature and rainfall patterns.

Key measures

Maximum, minimum, and mean air temperature; total, dry-season, and wet-season precipitation; coffee yield; total production. Mann–Kendall trend analysis, Sen's slope estimator, Pearson's and Spearman's correlation coefficients.

Outcomes reported

The study characterised long-term temperature and precipitation trends (1984–2023) and assessed their associations with coffee yield and production at two production units. Contrasting relationships between climate variables and agronomic performance were observed between the two sites, attributed to local microclimatic and land-use differences.

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