Summary
This study employed the Box-Jenkins ARIMA methodology to analyse global Arabica coffee prices over nearly five decades (1977–2025) and generate price forecasts through 2030. The resulting ARIMA(1,0,0) model identified autocorrelation structure and cyclical patterns in the price series, with reasonable predictive accuracy (R² = 0.745). The analysis projects continued upward pressure on Arabica coffee prices, with forecasted values increasing from 342.80 to 429.1 US cents per pound between 2026 and 2030.
Regional applicability
This global commodity price analysis is relevant to United Kingdom food supply chains, particularly for coffee importers, roasters, and retailers. The findings would inform pricing strategies and procurement planning for UK-based coffee businesses, though UK-specific consumption patterns and tariff structures would need separate consideration.
Key measures
ARIMA(1,0,0) model parameters; R² = 0.745; Mean Absolute Error (MAE) = 18.197; forecasted prices in US cents per pound; minimum price limits; 36% price variation over study period
Outcomes reported
The study applied Box-Jenkins ARIMA methodology to model global Arabica coffee prices from 1977 to 2025 and generated price forecasts for 2026–2030. The final ARIMA(1,0,0) model achieved R² = 0.745 with MAE = 18.197 and predicted prices ranging from 342.80 to 429.1 US cents per pound over the forecast period.
Supporting research
Primary abstract applies ARIMA time-series analysis to historical global arabica coffee prices, a concrete food-crop market forecasting application.
Limits: Forecast/model study; projected prices are conditional estimates, not observed future prices, identified causal farm effects or financial advice.
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