Thermal Vulnerability of Reef Fish and Implications for Subsistence Fisheries Throughout the Caribbean.

Summary

This study applied physiologically informed species distribution models (pSDM) to project climate-driven changes in geographic suitability for seven subsistence-important finfish species across the Caribbean. Mean climate suitability declined 20–66% across species under future scenarios, with greater reductions under high-warming projections and when models incorporated thermal limits across all life stages. Spatial analysis of the Mesoamerican Reef suggests climate-driven suitability shifts are already associated with observed biomass changes in multiple species, indicating that food security for coastal subsistence fishing communities is at risk from further warming.

Regional applicability

This study focuses on Caribbean and Mesoamerican reef systems and does not directly address United Kingdom fisheries or coastal communities. However, the methodological approach—combining physiological thermal data with species distribution models—is transferable to temperate marine systems around the UK where climate change is reshaping fish distributions and subsistence or small-scale fishing depends on particular species.

Key measures

Climate suitability projections (percentage change in suitable habitat); population biomass trends from long-term monitoring; thermal limit thresholds across fish life stages

Outcomes reported

The study projected mean reductions in climate suitability for seven key subsistence finfish species ranging from 20% to 66% under different warming scenarios. It examined spatial associations between climate vulnerability and biomass trends in the Mesoamerican Reef, suggesting climate-driven shifts are already affecting resource availability for subsistence fisheries.

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