Summary
This modelling study assessed how regional hydroclimatic conditions across U.S. river basins will shift during the 21st century in response to climate change, using five downscaled climate models and hydrological simulation. Seven distinct hydroclimatic behaviour groups were identified, with systematic associations between basin responses and regional landform, climate, and ecosystem characteristics. The findings suggest that basins with mountain, plateau, and basin landforms are likely to experience less arid conditions, whilst Plain landforms show variable responses depending on regional context, providing a framework for regional climate adaptation planning.
Regional applicability
This study focuses on the conterminous United States and does not directly address United Kingdom river basins or hydroclimatic conditions. However, the methodological approach—combining downscaled climate models with hydrological simulation and classifying basins by landform and ecosystem characteristics—could be transferable to UK water resource management and climate adaptation planning, particularly for characterising regional vulnerability and informing sectoral resilience strategies.
Key measures
Shifts in Budyko space coordinates (aridity and evaporative index); hydroclimatic behaviour groups derived from K-means clustering; landform type classifications; regional ecosystem and climate characteristics
Outcomes reported
The study modelled shifts in regional hydroclimatic conditions across conterminous U.S. river basins using five downscaled climate models and classified HUC8 basins into seven unique hydroclimatic behaviour groups. Results indicate that hydroclimatic responses vary by basin but are systematically associated with landform, climate, and ecosystem characteristics.
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