Global emergence of unprecedented lifetime exposure to climate extremes

Summary

Using integrated climate, impact and demographic modelling, this study projects that the proportion of people born in 2020 facing unprecedented cumulative lifetime exposure to climate extremes will vary dramatically with global warming trajectory: under current policies (2.7°C warming), 52% face unprecedented heatwave exposure, whilst under a 3.5°C scenario this rises to 92% for heatwaves, 29% for crop failures and 14% for river floods. The burden of such exposures is substantially concentrated among socioeconomically vulnerable populations, underscoring equity concerns in climate change impacts.

Regional applicability

This is a global modelling study with implications for United Kingdom climate planning and policy. The United Kingdom faces particular vulnerability to crop failures and river floods; the projection methodology and emphasis on socioeconomic inequalities in climate burden are directly relevant to UK climate adaptation and just transition policy, though regional downscaling would be needed to quantify specific UK-relevant exposure trajectories.

Key measures

Percentage of birth cohort experiencing unprecedented lifetime exposure to individual and multiple climate extremes; comparison across warming pathways (1.5°C, 2.7°C, 3.5°C by 2100); socioeconomic vulnerability stratification

Outcomes reported

The study projects the fraction of birth cohorts experiencing unprecedented cumulative lifetime exposure to multiple climate extremes (heatwaves, crop failures, river floods, droughts, wildfires, tropical cyclones) above pre-industrial 99.99th percentile under different warming pathways. Results highlight disparate vulnerability by socioeconomic status.

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