Summary
This global-scale geospatial analysis quantified the extent and trajectory of urban encroachment on floodplains between 1985 and 2015 using high-resolution flood hazard and land-use datasets. The authors found that urbanized area in the 1/100-year flood zone nearly doubled, with expansion rates accelerating by 50% after 2000, and demonstrated that population growth concentrated in the highest-risk areas. The findings highlight substantial and accelerating exposure of urban populations to flood hazard, with implications for flood risk management and climate adaptation planning.
Regional applicability
Whilst this is a global analysis, the methods and datasets are transferable to United Kingdom floodplain contexts, where similar urban expansion pressures exist. UK flood risk management and spatial planning policy could employ these geospatial approaches to monitor and model local floodplain encroachment trends, particularly as climate change alters flood frequency and intensity.
Key measures
Urbanized area in 1/100-year floodplains (1985–2015); rate of urban expansion; population density changes; spatial distribution of urbanization relative to flood hazard zones
Outcomes reported
The study quantified urbanized area expansion in global floodplains with 1/100-year flood probability from 1985 to 2015, finding nearly a doubling of urban area and a 1.5-fold acceleration in expansion rate post-2000. The research also documented that urbanization was concentrated in the highest-hazard zones within floodplains.
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