Compound Wind and Precipitation Extremes in Global Coastal Regions Under Climate Change

Summary

This global modelling study used Coupled Model Intercomparison Project outputs to assess how climate change will affect compound wind and precipitation extremes in coastal regions vulnerable to tropical cyclones. The authors identified geographic hotspots of high dependence between these compound events and projected substantial increases (40–50%) in their likelihood across North Atlantic, East, and South Asian coastal areas by the end of the century. The findings are intended to support disaster risk reduction planning in vulnerable coastal communities.

Regional applicability

This study's global scope does not focus specifically on United Kingdom coastal regions, though results may have relevance to Atlantic-facing coasts. The methodology and climate projections could be adapted to assess compound extremes affecting UK coastal agriculture, infrastructure, and food supply chains, particularly given projected increases in North Atlantic storm intensity.

Key measures

Probability and frequency of compound wind and precipitation extremes; dependence between extreme wind and precipitation events; projected changes under climate change scenarios

Outcomes reported

The study quantified changes in the frequency and dependence structure of compound wind and precipitation extreme events in global coastal regions under climate change scenarios. Results showed projected increases in compound extreme event likelihood of 40–50% in North Atlantic, East, and South Asia coastal zones.

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