Summary
This study develops a hydro-climatic extremes assessment framework by integrating high-resolution CMIP6 climate simulations with the SWAT hydrological model to project future extreme flows in the flood-prone Kelantan River Basin, Malaysia. Climate projections to 2050 show increases in precipitation (6.9%), streamflow (9.9%), and temperature, with pronounced seasonal variation during monsoon periods and a notable divergence between high- and low-resolution climate models. The findings suggest that model resolution significantly influences projections of hydrological extremes, with implications for flood risk assessment and water resource planning in the region.
Regional applicability
This study addresses hydrological extremes in Malaysia and does not directly apply to United Kingdom conditions. However, the methodological framework—integrating high-resolution climate models with process-based hydrological modelling to assess extreme flows—may be transferable to UK river basins vulnerable to climate-driven flooding or drought, though regional calibration and validation would be required.
Key measures
Annual precipitation, streamflow, maximum and minimum temperatures; 66 hydrological and environmental flow indicators from the Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA); 1-, 3-, 7-, 30- and 90-day minimum and maximum flows
Outcomes reported
The study projected changes in hydrological extremes and environmental flow indicators for the Kelantan River Basin under future climate scenarios (2021–2050), using high-resolution climate models coupled with hydrological modelling. Results indicate increases in precipitation, streamflow, and temperature, with differential responses between high- and low-resolution climate models.
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