Summary
This global observational study quantifies the frequency and climate change trends of temporally compounding heat and precipitation extremes. The authors find that successive hot and wet extremes occurring within a week happen approximately 15% more frequently than expected by chance, with a significant increase of about 22% per decade due to warming. The analysis identifies vapour pressure deficit as a key physical driver linking these compound extremes, and employs robust statistical methods to confirm findings under conditions of autocorrelation.
Regional applicability
The global scope of this analysis provides relevant context for understanding compound extreme risks in the United Kingdom, where rapid alternations between heat waves and heavy precipitation are increasingly documented. Whilst the paper does not specifically analyse United Kingdom data, the 22% per-decade increase in compound extremes with warming has direct implications for UK water, agricultural, and infrastructure resilience planning under climate change.
Key measures
Frequency of successive heat-pluvial and pluvial-heat events (events per year, percentage increase per decade); vapour pressure deficit (VPD) anomalies; statistical significance via moving-blocks bootstrap resampling and field significance tests
Outcomes reported
The study quantified the frequency of successive heat-pluvial and pluvial-heat events occurring within one week globally during 1956–2015, and assessed how their occurrence changes with warming. It examined the role of vapour pressure deficit (VPD) in linking these compound extreme events.
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