Summary
This study uses Bayesian methodology to characterise the 2022 European compound drought and heatwave as an unprecedented climatic event, estimating return periods of 280–420 years for the most severely affected regions (France, Iberian Peninsula, Northern Italy). The analysis identifies reduced soil moisture and precipitation deficits as key drivers of a positive feedback loop intensifying drought persistence. The findings underscore the increasing risk of severe compound weather extremes under global warming.
Regional applicability
The 2022 event directly impacted European agricultural regions including the United Kingdom's continental neighbours; whilst the United Kingdom experienced elevated temperatures and dryness during this period, the study's focus on southern and continental European regions (Iberia, France, Italy) means applicability to UK conditions is moderate. The soil moisture feedback mechanisms and climate change attribution are transferable to UK drought risk assessment.
Key measures
Return period (RP) estimates; temperature anomalies (°C above normal); soil moisture; precipitation deficits; spatial distribution of affected regions
Outcomes reported
The study analysed the severity and return period of the 2022 compound drought and heatwave event across Europe, identifying unprecedented conditions in Northern Italy, the Iberian Peninsula, and western France. The analysis quantified soil moisture feedback mechanisms contributing to drought persistence and severity.
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