Summary
This study evaluated whether and to what extent reservoir operations can mitigate hydrological extremes in the Nenjiang River Basin, Northeast China, under historical and projected future climate conditions. The authors coupled reservoir operations into basin hydrological simulations and found that the Nierji Reservoir substantially reduced historical flood and drought risks, but climate change projections indicate future flood probability and drought frequency will increase substantially beyond current mitigation capacity. The findings suggest that optimised reservoir scheduling and improved basin resilience strategies will be necessary to address future hydrological risks.
Regional applicability
This study focuses on Northeast China and may have limited direct applicability to United Kingdom water management, where rainfall patterns, hydrological regimes, and reservoir design differ significantly. However, the methodological approach to coupling reservoir operations with hydrological modelling under climate scenarios could inform UK water resource planning, particularly for reservoirs serving flood defence and drought mitigation roles.
Key measures
Annual probability of flooding, frequency of hydrological droughts, reservoir operation effectiveness, basin hydrological simulation capacity
Outcomes reported
The study assessed the historical and future effectiveness of reservoir operations in regulating flood and drought risks in the Nenjiang River Basin under climate change scenarios. Key findings included quantified changes in flood probability (48% under future scenarios vs 22.2% historically) and drought frequency increases (139.20% under SSP370 scenario).
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