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Tier 3 — Observational / field trialPeer-reviewed

Projected Changes in Hot, Dry, and Compound Hot‐Dry Extremes Over Global Land Regions

Paolo De Luca, Markus G. Donat

Geophysical Research Letters · 2023

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Summary

This study presents a comprehensive assessment of projected changes in hot, dry, and compound hot-dry extremes across global land regions through 2100, using 25 climate models and multiple future emissions scenarios. The analysis demonstrates widespread increases in hot and compound extremes, whilst dry extremes show more variable patterns depending on the metric used. The findings underscore the potential for mitigation efforts to limit regional climate extreme changes, with implications for adaptation planning.

Regional applicability

This global climate modelling study has direct relevance to United Kingdom climate adaptation planning, particularly for understanding future risks to agriculture, water availability, and food security. Regional projections would need to be extracted from the global dataset to assess specific UK impacts, but the multi-model ensemble approach provides robust estimates for temperate regions.

Key measures

Frequency and intensity of hot extremes, dry extremes, and compound hot-dry extremes; projections across 25 CMIP6 models; four emissions scenarios; regional changes in extreme event characteristics

Outcomes reported

The study projected changes in the frequency and intensity of hot, dry, and compound hot-dry extremes across global land regions from 1950 to 2100 under four emissions scenarios. Results showed widespread increases in hot and compound hot-dry extremes by the end of the 21st century, with dry extreme changes being sensitive to the specific index used.

Theme
Climate & resilience
Subject
Climate & greenhouse gas mitigation
Study type
Research
Study design
Multi-model ensemble analysis
Source type
Peer-reviewed study
Status
Published
Geography
Global
System type
Other
DOI
10.1029/2022gl102493
Catalogue ID
SNmqopeucv-gzr6s8

Topic tags

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