Summary
This study employs a cascade of five bias-corrected global climate models coupled with hydrological and machine learning models to project changes in flood risk characteristics across 204 Chinese catchments through the late 21st century. Using a bivariate copula framework to jointly characterise flood peak and duration, the authors estimate that flood hazards will increase by 25–100% under different emissions pathways, with substantial projected exposure of population (608 people/km²) and economic assets (24.0 million dollars/km²) to these enhanced flood risks under moderate emissions scenarios. The findings highlight the need for climate adaptation and hazard mitigation policies in China.
Regional applicability
This study is specific to China's hydrological and socioeconomic context and does not directly apply to United Kingdom conditions. However, the methodological approach using bivariate flood analysis and copula functions for joint hazard characterisation is transferable and could inform UK flood risk assessment frameworks, particularly given increasing precipitation extremes and infrastructure vulnerability in UK river systems.
Key measures
Flood peak discharge, flood duration, joint return periods using copula functions, population exposure (people/km²), economic exposure (dollars/km²), percentage changes in flood characteristics by emissions scenario
Outcomes reported
The study projected changes in flood peak and duration between 1985–2014 and 2071–2100 across 204 Chinese catchments, and quantified the exposure of population and regional GDP to bivariate flood hazards under three emissions scenarios.
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