Summary
This study applied APSIM process-based crop modelling to assess the resilience of three annual crops (wheat, maize, potato) to combined climate change and water-stress scenarios projected for the UAE through 2100. Model calibration and validation confirmed robust accuracy in simulating crop development and yield under UAE agro-environmental conditions. Results indicate severe yield reductions under medium–high emission scenarios, with wheat yields declining by up to 50 % and maize by up to 75 %; optimised irrigation scheduling via APSIM proved effective in maintaining water-use efficiency in maize and supporting appropriate timing for potato under high-emissions scenarios.
Regional applicability
This study is geographically specific to UAE arid agriculture and may have limited direct applicability to United Kingdom farming systems, which operate under vastly different climatic, water availability, and soil conditions. However, the methodological approach using APSIM for climate-adaptive irrigation management and stress-tolerant variety selection has potential transferability to UK temperate arable systems facing increasing seasonal variability and water scarcity.
Key measures
Crop yields (wheat, maize, potato); phenological development; water-use efficiency; temperature and water stress impacts; vulnerability–resilience profiles under four Shared-Socioeconomic-Pathways (SSPs: 2.6–4.5–7.0–8.5)
Outcomes reported
The study used APSIM crop modelling to simulate wheat, maize, and potato yields under climate change projections (1988–2100) and various irrigation management strategies in UAE arid conditions. Results quantified yield reductions under different emission scenarios and assessed crop vulnerability–resilience profiles to combined climate and water stress.
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