Current warming will reduce yields unless maize breeding and seed systems adapt immediately

Summary

This 2016 Nature Climate Change paper, authored by leading crop modellers, presents evidence that ongoing climate warming will reduce maize yields unless breeding programmes and seed systems undergo rapid adaptation. The work implies that current varietal portfolios and seed deployment strategies are insufficient to maintain yields under projected warming, and advocates for immediate systemic change in crop improvement and distribution. The findings underscore the urgency of climate-smart agriculture investment, particularly in staple crops critical to global food security.

Regional applicability

Whilst the study is global in scope, United Kingdom maize cultivation is marginal and confined to southern regions for grain and forage. However, the findings apply directly to UK agricultural policy on food security, overseas aid and climate adaptation support for maize-dependent regions (particularly sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia), and may inform domestic breeding priorities for other cereals such as wheat.

Key measures

Maize yield impacts under warming scenarios; breeding and seed system adaptation requirements

Outcomes reported

The study likely modelled or assessed how current warming trends affect maize yield potential and identifies adaptation requirements in breeding and seed systems. The research suggests urgent need for breeding programme adjustments to maintain productivity under warming scenarios.

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