Pulse Brain · Growing Health Evidence Index
Tier 3 — Observational / field trialPeer-reviewed

Long-term thermal sensitivity of Earth’s tropical forests

Martin J. P. Sullivan, Simon L. Lewis, Kofi Affum‐Baffoe, Carolina Volkmer de Castilho, Flávia R. C. Costa, Aida Cuní‐Sanchez, Corneille E. N. Ewango, Wannes Hubau, Beatriz Schwantes Marimon, Abel Monteagudo‐Mendoza, Lan Qie, Bonaventure Sonké, Rodolfo Vásquez, Timothy R. Baker, Roel Brienen, Ted R. Feldpausch, David Roberto Galbraith, Manuel U. Gloor, Yadvinder Singh Malhi, Shin-Ichiro Aiba, Miguel N. Alexiades, Everton Cristo de Almeida, Edmar Almeida de Oliveira, Esteban Álvarez‐Dávila, Patricia Álvarez-Loayza, Ana Andrade, Simone Aparecida Vieira, Luiz E. O. C. Aragão, Alejandro Araujo‐Murakami, Eric J. M. M. Arets, Luzmila Arroyo, Peter Shaw ASHTON, Gerardo A. Aymard C., Fabrício Beggiato Baccaro, Lindsay F. Banin, Christopher Baraloto, Plínio Barbosa de Camargo, Jos Barlow, Jorcely Barroso, Jean‐François Bastin, Sarah A. Batterman, Hans Beeckman, Serge K. Begne, Amy C. Bennett, Érika Berenguer, Nicholas Berry, Lilian Blanc, Pascal Boeckx, Jan Bogaert, Damien Bonal, Frans Bongers, Matt Bradford, Francis Q. Brearley, Terry M. Brncic, Foster Brown, Benoît Burban, José Luís Camargo, Wendeson Castro, Carlos Cerón, Sabina Cerruto Ribeiro, Víctor Chama Moscoso, Jérôme Chave, Éric Chézeaux, Connie J. Clark, Fernanda Coelho de Souza, Murray Collins, James A. Comiskey, Fernando Cornejo Valverde, Massiel Corrales Medina, Lola da Costa, Martin Dančák, Greta Christina Dargie, Stuart James Davies, Nállarett Dávila, Thalès de Haulleville, Marcelo Brilhante de Medeiros, Jhon del Águila Pasquel, Géraldine Derroire, Anthony Di Fiore, Jean‐Louis Doucet, Aurélie Dourdain, Vincent Droissart, Luisa Fernanda Duque, Romeo Ekoungoulou, Fernando Elias, Terry L. Erwin, Adriane Esquivel‐Muelbert, Sophie Fauset, Joice Ferreira, Gerardo Flores Llampazo, Ernest G. Foli, Andrew James Ford, Martin B. Gilpin, Jefferson S. Hall, Keith C. Hamer, Alan Hamilton, David J. Harris, Térese B. Hart, Radim Hédl, Bruno Hérault

Science · 2020

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Summary

This large-scale analysis of 590 permanent tropical forest plots reveals maximum temperature as the dominant climate control on forest carbon storage, with an equilibrium sensitivity of −9.1 Mg C/ha per °C that increases in magnitude in already-hot forests. Despite this strong relationship, the findings suggest greater long-term thermal resilience in tropical forests than short-term climate perturbations would predict, indicating that forest carbon responses to warming may stabilize at new equilibrium states rather than continuing to decline indefinitely.

Regional applicability

This is a global tropical analysis without United Kingdom study sites. The findings are directly applicable to tropical forest policy and climate modelling but have limited transferability to temperate UK forestry systems, which operate under fundamentally different climate constraints and forest dynamics.

Key measures

Aboveground biomass (megagrams of carbon per hectare), maximum temperature, woody productivity, thermal sensitivity across tropical forest plots

Outcomes reported

The study quantified the equilibrium relationship between maximum temperature and aboveground forest carbon across 590 tropical forest plots, finding that maximum temperature is the strongest climate predictor of aboveground biomass with a loss of 9.1 Mg C/ha per °C, primarily through reduced woody productivity.

Theme
Climate & resilience
Subject
Climate & greenhouse gas mitigation
Study type
Research
Study design
Observational cohort
Source type
Peer-reviewed study
Status
Published
Geography
Global
System type
Other
DOI
10.1126/science.aaw7578
Catalogue ID
BFmucmwxjd-mejkla

Topic tags

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