Territorial risk of high pathogenicity avian influenza in France is associated with farmed species diversity

Summary

This spatial epidemiological study provides evidence that livestock species diversity at the territorial level, particularly the presence of cattle and pig farms alongside poultry production, is associated with reduced high pathogenicity avian influenza risk in France. Using spatially calibrated models across three successive HPAI outbreaks (2020–2023), the authors demonstrate both a general diversity protection effect and a more specific dilution effect within poultry production itself—where lower-competence non-duck species reduce transmission pressure on duck farms. The findings suggest that farming system diversification may be a previously underexploited lever for disease control complementary to conventional biosecurity strategies.

Regional applicability

Findings are directly applicable to French poultry and mixed livestock farming systems and regions with similar geographic and production patterns. The dilution effect mechanism and the protective role of cattle and pig farm diversity may transfer to United Kingdom mixed farming territories, though UK poultry production structures, flock sizes, and farm density patterns differ; field validation would be needed to establish applicability to UK farm configurations and HPAI epidemiology.

Key measures

HPAI risk; local livestock farm diversity index; duck house density; non-duck poultry house density; spatial statistical model parameters calibrated on three HPAI epidemics

Outcomes reported

The study demonstrated that greater local diversity of livestock farms, including cattle and pig farms, is associated with significantly lower HPAI risk across three French epidemics (2020–2023). It also revealed a dilution effect within poultry production systems, where increased non-duck poultry houses weakened the positive association between duck houses and HPAI risk.

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