Food security outcomes in agricultural systems models: Current status and recommended improvements

Summary

This systematic review examined how food security has been conceptualised and measured within agricultural systems models, finding that the literature predominantly emphasises agricultural output as a proxy for food availability whilst largely neglecting food access, utilisation and stability dimensions. The authors argue that agricultural systems modellers often conflate covariates that may improve food security (such as yields) with food security outcomes themselves, and recommend greater investment in dynamic models, longitudinal data collection, and formal assessment of robustness and adaptability to better capture the multidimensional nature of food security.

Regional applicability

The findings apply broadly to food security modelling practice regardless of geography, though the review's recommendations for improved data collection and dynamic modelling are particularly relevant to United Kingdom and European contexts where agricultural systems research informs policy. The critique that models over-emphasise yield at the expense of access and stability is globally applicable but may have particular salience for UK policy discussions around food security and sustainable intensification.

Key measures

Food security dimensions (availability, access, utilisation, stability); agricultural output; yield; household and regional-level food security indicators

Outcomes reported

The review assessed how food security has been conceptualised and evaluated in agricultural systems analyses at household and regional levels. It identified that most models focus narrowly on agricultural output as a proxy for food availability, neglecting access, utilisation and stability dimensions.

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