Exploring the Linkages Between Climate Change, Food Security, Economic Growth, and Migration in Selected Countries

Summary

This panel study examines interconnected pathways linking climate change, food security, economic growth, and migration in nine countries ranked lowest on the Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative Index. The analysis reveals bidirectional causal relationships: climate change reduces agricultural productivity and increases food prices, whilst unsustainable agricultural policies can exacerbate climate change; similarly, economic growth and migration interact with climate and food security in feedback loops. The authors argue that these four dimensions cannot be addressed separately and advocate for integrated, holistic policymaking.

Regional applicability

This study focuses on nine countries with the lowest climate adaptation readiness (likely concentrated in sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and other vulnerable regions) and does not directly address United Kingdom conditions. However, the framework's emphasis on integrated policy approaches to climate, food security, and migration may inform UK government strategies on international development, food system resilience, and climate adaptation support for vulnerable partner nations.

Key measures

ND-GAIN Index rankings; bidirectional causal relationships (Granger causality or similar panel methods inferred); agricultural productivity; food prices; economic growth; migration flows; climate vulnerability indicators

Outcomes reported

The study identified bidirectional causal relationships between climate change and food security, between climate change/food security and migration, and between economic growth, climate change, and migration in nine low-ranking ND-GAIN Index countries. Panel data analysis (1999–2022) revealed that climate change reduces agricultural productivity and drives food prices, whilst agricultural policies can contribute to climate change if unsustainable.

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