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Tier 3 — Observational / field trialPeer-reviewedRegenerative

Assessing the Resilience of Regenerative Agricultural Systems to Climate Change: A Scenario-Based Systemic Analysis Framework

Ana-Maria Nicolau; Augustin Semenescu; Petruţa Petcu

Agriculture · 2026

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Summary

This study applies a systemic analysis framework integrating Failure Mode and Effects Analysis to evaluate climate resilience in medium-sized European regenerative farms under varying policy and infrastructural conditions. The research identifies a critical 'Resilience Gap' between theoretical potential and practical reality, demonstrating that ecological practices alone (such as cover cropping and no-till) are insufficient for economic resilience without supporting Monitoring, Reporting, and Verification systems. The findings suggest a paradigm shift from practice-based to outcome-based incentives, coupled with accessible MRV technologies, is essential to enhance real-world regenerative agriculture resilience.

Regional applicability

The study is explicitly focused on European agriculture, with particular relevance to the United Kingdom's medium-sized farm sector (50–200 ha), which aligns with professional farming operations. The findings on outcome-based incentives versus practice-based subsidies are directly applicable to UK agricultural policy and subsidy reform, particularly post-CAP transition frameworks.

Key measures

Resilience scores across three operational contexts (Integrated High-Performance, Transitional/Fragmented, Maladaptive); sufficiency of ecological practices; access to MRV systems; ecosystem service verification; climate shock vulnerability

Outcomes reported

The study assessed the climate resilience of medium-sized regenerative agriculture farms (50–200 ha) across three operational contexts using Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) and synthesized global metrics. It identified a significant gap between theoretical resilience potential and practical implementation, particularly relating to the role of Monitoring, Reporting, and Verification (MRV) systems in enabling economic resilience.

Theme
Climate & resilience
Subject
Climate & greenhouse gas mitigation
Study type
Research
Study design
Comparative systemic analysis with Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) framework
Source type
Peer-reviewed study
Status
Published
Geography
Europe
System type
Regenerative systems
DOI
10.3390/agriculture16030374
Catalogue ID
NRmupdc5m3-082

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