Alley Cropping Mitigates the Impacts of Climate Change on a Wheat Crop in a Mediterranean Environment: A Biophysical Model-Based Assessment

Summary

This modelling study assessed how integrating hybrid walnut trees into cereal production mitigates climate change impacts on winter durum wheat in Mediterranean conditions. Using the Hi-sAFe model across past (1951–1990), present (1991–2030), and future (2031–2070) climate scenarios, the authors found that agroforestry reduced heat, drought, and nitrogen stresses by 20–35% compared to monoculture, whilst moderately reducing crop yields as trees matured. The results suggest agroforestry offers a viable climate adaptation strategy by buffering crops against physiological stress extremes, particularly under future climate conditions.

Regional applicability

Whilst this study focuses on Mediterranean conditions, its findings may have relevance to United Kingdom agroforestry design, particularly for regions with warming trends and increasing drought risk. However, the UK's cooler climate and different soil/rainfall patterns mean direct application would require local adaptation trials; the study does not address UK-specific cultivars, tree species, or management practices.

Key measures

Crop yield (t/ha), thermal stress intensity, water stress intensity, nitrogen stress intensity, tree diameter at breast height (DBH), stress occurrence frequency

Outcomes reported

The study simulated crop growth, thermal stress, water stress, nitrogen stress, and grain yields for wheat grown in monoculture versus alley-cropped with hybrid walnut trees under past, present, and future climate scenarios. Heat, drought, and nitrogen stresses were 20–35% lower in agroforestry systems despite moderate yield reductions with tree maturation.

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