Climate change: Can wheat beat the heat?

Summary

This review synthesises approaches to address climate change impacts on global wheat production, which occupies 200 million hectares and supplies 21% of global food. The authors project significant redistribution of wheat mega-environments by 2050, with up to 51% of the Indo-Gangetic Plains shifting to heat-stressed conditions unless appropriate cultivars and management practices are adopted. The paper identifies three complementary strategies: development of heat-tolerant germplasm through conventional and biotechnological breeding, adoption of conservation agriculture to reduce emissions, and precision nitrogen management using sensor-based tools to lower nitrous oxide release.

Regional applicability

Whilst this is a global review, United Kingdom wheat production is primarily in the cool temperate mega-environment; the paper projects this zone could expand northward to 65°N. UK relevance lies in understanding medium-term climate risks to current wheat zones and the global food security implications of adaptation failures in South Asia and other vulnerable regions. The germplasm and management innovations reviewed may have limited direct application to UK farming but inform policy on global food security and breeding priorities.

Key measures

Projected shifts in wheat mega-environments by 2050; area reclassification in Indo-Gangetic Plains; heat tolerance alleles; CO₂ emissions reductions; nitrous oxide emission reductions via NDVI-guided nitrogen management.

Outcomes reported

The study reviews approaches for adapting wheat production to climate change impacts, including germplasm adaptation, system management, and mitigation strategies across major wheat-growing regions. It projects climate-driven shifts in wheat mega-environments and proposes heat-tolerant cultivars and conservation agriculture practices to maintain yields.

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