Developing a novel conceptual model of how food and drink tax policy impacts on consumption, health, environmental and economic outcomes.

Summary

This study develops a comprehensive conceptual model to map the complex causal mechanisms through which food and drink taxes influence dietary consumption, health, environmental and economic outcomes in the UK context. The model was constructed through synthesis of existing reviews and economic evaluations, then validated and refined through stakeholder consultation with academics, policymakers and third sector organisations. The final model identifies eight interconnected sub-systems and feedback loops, recognising that industry responses (tax absorption, product reformulation, marketing) and household financial constraints substantially modify the relationship between tax policy and ultimate health and environmental impacts.

Regional applicability

This study is UK-based and directly addresses the complexity of implementing food tax policy within the UK health and economic system. The findings are applicable to UK policy development and economic evaluation frameworks, though the specific magnitudes of effects across causal pathways would require empirical quantification through UK-based studies.

Key measures

System components, causal pathways, sub-systems (policy infrastructure, industry behaviour, consumer behaviour, household expenditure, nutrition outcomes, health outcomes, environmental outcomes, macroeconomic outcomes), feedback loops, and contextual modifiers

Outcomes reported

Development and validation of a conceptual model mapping causal pathways through which food and drink taxes influence consumption, health, environmental and macroeconomic outcomes. The model identifies eight sub-systems and contextual factors mediating policy effects.

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