Summary
This econometric study linked farmland values to climatic, soil, and socioeconomic variables across U.S. rainfed agricultural counties, using degree days as a measure of crop-relevant temperature exposure. Applying the calibrated model to warming scenarios, the authors project substantial heterogeneous impacts on farmland values, with aggregate losses under sustained high-emissions pathways. The approach demonstrates how agronomically-informed climate metrics can improve economic prediction of agricultural vulnerability.
Regional applicability
This study focuses on rainfed U.S. agriculture east of the 100th meridian and may not directly transfer to United Kingdom conditions, which differ in climate, crop types, and agricultural systems. However, the methodology of linking farmland productivity to degree days and other climatic metrics could inform similar vulnerability assessments for UK cereal and temperate crop regions.
Key measures
Farmland values (USD/county); degree days (nonlinear temperature metric); climatic, soil, and socioeconomic variables; predicted warming scenarios
Outcomes reported
The study estimated the impact of climate warming on farmland values across U.S. counties using degree days as a nonlinear climatic measure. More than 75% of counties showed statistically significant effects ranging from moderate gains to large losses, with aggregate losses potentially substantial under high fossil fuel use scenarios.
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