Mapping global patterns of drought risk: An empirical framework based on sub-national estimates of hazard, exposure and vulnerability

Summary

This global study develops an empirical framework for mapping drought risk at sub-national resolution by integrating three independent components: hazard, exposure and vulnerability. The analysis reveals that regional exposure is the dominant driver of geographic variation in drought risk, with particularly high risk identified in intensively farmed and populated areas of South-Central Asia, South America, Central Europe and the United States. The authors highlight implications for food security and social conflict, particularly as climate projections suggest increasing drought frequency and intensity in these vulnerable regions.

Regional applicability

The study identifies Central Europe as an area of currently elevated drought risk under the 2000–2014 baseline, relevant to UK-adjacent regions and European agricultural policy. The framework and findings are globally applicable; however, direct transferability of specific vulnerability indicators to UK conditions would require localisation of social, economic and infrastructural factors. The study's emphasis on agricultural regions' infrastructural vulnerability may inform UK drought resilience and food security planning in the context of climate change.

Key measures

Drought hazard index (non-parametric precipitation deficit analysis at 0.5° resolution); drought exposure index (gridded aggregation of population density, livestock density, crop cover and water stress); drought vulnerability index (composite of social, economic and infrastructural indicators at national and sub-national levels); overall drought risk (product of hazard, exposure and vulnerability)

Outcomes reported

The study presents a global sub-national map of drought risk for 2000–2014, derived from the multiplicative combination of drought hazard (based on precipitation deficits), exposure (population, livestock, crop cover and water stress), and vulnerability (social, economic and infrastructural indicators). Key findings show that drought risk is exponentially driven by regional exposure rather than hazard or vulnerability alone, with elevated risk concentrated in agricultural regions including South-Central Asia, Southeast South America, Central Europe and Southeast United States.

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